Trading
Indexes Newsletter 2010-1
January 24, 2010
FTI Staff
FTI System Trades and Returns for 2009
Actual Trades Using Guided Approach
The following are the lists of trades and results for
2009 for each of the portfolios in the FTI Guided Approach. Included are
trades for the Brokerage-Available portfolio, the trades for the fund company
portfolios (Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard), and the trades for the
annuities (Fidelity VIP/VALIC). The trades can be verified from the FTI
reports and/or TI lists available to members.
Each portfolio starts with $100,000 on 12/31/08. We use Fidelity for the
brokerage account. Fidelity charges a short term trading fee of $75 each
time you sell or exchange shares of No Transaction Fee (NTF) funds held less
than 180 days (short-term trade). When a trade is signaled for a mutual
fund in a brokerage account, the sale is made on the Monday following the trade
signal and the proceeds (minus the trading fee) are used to buy the new fund on
Tuesday. For individual mutual fund accounts and annuities, the sale and
subsequent purchase are both made on Monday.
The year-to-date gains/losses are shown in percent at each transaction point to
mark the progress of each portfolio.
Brokerage-Available Portfolio:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
BRPIX at $33.83 |
2955.956
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
1/5 |
|
Sell
BRPIX at $32.89 |
2955.956
shares |
$97,221.40 |
|
|
|
1/6 |
|
Buy
PEMDX at $8.58 |
11331.166
shares |
$97,221.40 |
|
-2.78% |
|
1/26 |
|
Sell
PEMDX at $8.43 |
11331.166
shares |
$93,536.29 |
|
2%
redemption fee |
|
1/27 |
|
Buy
BRPIX at $35.71 |
2619.330
shares |
$93,536.29 |
|
-6.46% |
|
3/30 |
|
Sell
BRPIX at $36.69 |
2619.330
shares |
$96,028.24 |
|
|
|
3/31 |
|
Buy
EEMCX at $6.36 |
15098.779
shares |
$96,028.24 |
|
-3.97% |
|
5/4 |
|
Sell
EEMCX at $7.66 |
15098.779
shares |
$115,581.65 |
|
|
|
5/5 |
|
Buy
YAFFX at $12.18 |
9489.462
shares |
$115,581.65 |
|
15.58% |
|
7/6 |
|
Sell
YAFFX at $12.62 |
9489.462
shares |
$119,682.01 |
|
|
|
7/7 |
|
Buy
GTDCX at $20.74 |
5770.589
shares |
$119,682.01 |
|
19.68% |
|
8/10 |
|
Sell
GTDCX at $23.41 |
5770.589
shares |
$133,663.59 |
|
1%
redemption fee |
|
8/11 |
|
Buy
CAAPX at $29.06 |
4599.573
shares |
$133,663.59 |
|
33.66% |
|
9/21 |
|
Sell
CAAPX at $31.93 |
4599.573
shares |
$146,789.36 |
|
|
|
9/22 |
|
Buy
VERDX at $10.62 |
13821.974
shares |
$146,789.36 |
|
46.79% |
|
10/26 |
|
Sell
VERDX at $9.90 |
13821.974
shares |
$136,762.54 |
|
|
|
10/27 |
|
Buy
CHTTX at $23.60 |
5795.023
shares |
$136,762.54 |
|
36.76% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
CHTTX at $26.09 |
5806.108
shares |
$151,481.36 |
|
51.48%
1 |
|
12/31 |
Holding
SPRXX at $1.00 |
100000
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|||
|
1/12 |
Sell
SPRXX at $1.00 |
100057.544
shares |
$100,057.54 |
1 |
||
|
1/12 |
Buy
SPHIX at $6.39 |
15658.458
shares |
$100,057.54 |
0.06% |
||
|
3/9 |
Sell
SPHIX at $5.85 |
15831.118
shares |
$92,612.04 |
1 |
||
|
3/9 |
Buy
SPRXX at $1.00 |
92612.041
shares |
$92,612.04 |
-7.39% |
||
|
3/23 |
Sell
SPRXX at $1.00 |
92639.624
shares |
$92,639.62 |
1 |
||
|
3/23 |
Buy
FNMIX at $11.71 |
7911.155
shares |
$92,639.62 |
-7.36% |
||
|
4/13 |
Sell
FNMIX at $12.37 |
7911.155
shares |
$97,059.92 |
1%
redemption fee |
||
|
4/13 |
Buy
FSLCX at $10.69 |
9079.506
shares |
$97,059.92 |
-2.94% |
||
|
5/18 |
Sell
FSLCX at $11.36 |
9079.506
shares |
$101,080.33 |
2%
redemption fee |
||
|
5/18 |
Buy
FPBFX at $15.71 |
6434.139
shares |
$101,080.33 |
1.08% |
||
|
8/24 |
Sell
FPBFX at $19.27 |
6434.139
shares |
$123,985.86 |
|||
|
8/24 |
Buy
FDVLX at $52.39 |
2366.594
shares |
$123,985.86 |
23.99% |
||
|
11/2 |
Sell
FDVLX at $51.98 |
2366.594
shares |
$123,015.56 |
|||
|
11/2 |
Buy
SPHIX at $8.20 |
15001.897
shares |
$123,015.56 |
23.02% |
||
|
12/28 |
Sell
SPHIX at $8.44 |
15078.544
shares |
$125,990.29 |
1 |
||
|
12/28 |
Buy
FSLCX at $16.10 |
7825.484
shares |
$125,990.29 |
25.99% |
||
|
12/31 |
Holding
FSLCX at $15.94 |
7825.484
shares |
$124,738.21 |
24.74% |
T. Rowe Price Funds:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
PRULX at $13.75 |
7272.727
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
2/2 |
|
Sell
PRULX at $12.85 |
7279.396
shares |
$93,540.24 |
|
|
|
2/2 |
|
Buy
TSCXX at $1.00 |
93540.243
shares |
$93,540.24 |
|
-6.46% |
|
3/23 |
|
Sell
TSCXX at $1.00 |
93608.767
shares |
$93,608.77 |
|
1 |
|
3/23 |
|
Buy
PRULX at $12.94 |
7234.062
shares |
$93,608.77 |
|
-6.39% |
|
4/6 |
|
Sell
PRULX at $12.79 |
7240.360
shares |
$92,604.21 |
|
1 |
|
4/6 |
|
Buy
PRWAX $20.42 |
4534.976
shares |
$92,604.21 |
|
-7.40% |
|
5/11 |
|
Sell
PRWAX at $22.22 |
4534.976
shares |
$100,767.16 |
|
|
|
5/11 |
|
Buy
TRMCX $16.06 |
6274.419
shares |
$100,767.16 |
|
0.77% |
|
5/18 |
|
Sell
TRMCX at $15.80 |
6274.419
shares |
$99,135.81 |
|
|
|
5/18 |
|
Buy
PRITX at $9.68 |
10241.303
shares |
$99,135.81 |
|
-0.86% |
|
12/28 |
|
Sell
PRITX at $12.64 |
10665.982
shares |
$134,818.02 |
|
1 |
|
12/28 |
|
Buy
PEXMX at $13.01 |
10362.645
shares |
$134,818.02 |
|
34.82% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
PEXMX at $12.83 |
10362.645
shares |
$132,952.74 |
|
32.95% |
Vanguard:
|
12/31 |
Holding
VUSTX at $13.38 |
7473.842
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|||
|
2/2 |
Sell
VUSTX at $12.41 |
7496.306
shares |
$93,029.16 |
1 |
||
|
2/2 |
Buy
VWEHX at $4.48 |
20765.437
shares |
$93,029.16 |
-6.97% |
||
|
3/9 |
Sell
VWEHX at $4.14 |
20765.437
shares |
$86,128.11 |
1 |
||
|
3/9 |
Buy
VMMXX at $1.00 |
85968.908
shares |
$86,128.11 |
-13.87% |
||
|
3/23 |
Sell
VMMXX at $1.00 |
86154.399
shares |
$86,154.40 |
1 |
||
|
3/23 |
Buy
VUSTX at $12.47 |
6908.933
shares |
$86,154.40 |
-13.85% |
||
|
3/30 |
Sell
VUSTX at $12.41 |
6908.933
shares |
$85,525.51 |
|||
|
3/30 |
Buy
VEIEX at $14.59 |
5861.927
shares |
$85,525.51 |
-14.47% |
||
|
5/4 |
Sell
VEIEX at $18.62 |
5861.927
shares |
$108,876.21 |
0.5%
pur./red. fees |
||
|
5/4 |
Buy
VCVLX at $6.65 |
16372.362
shares |
$108,876.21 |
8.88% |
||
|
7/13 |
Sell
VCVLX at $6.52 |
16372.362
shares |
$106,747.80 |
|||
|
7/13 |
Buy
VWESX at $8.51 |
12543.807
shares |
$106,747.80 |
6.75% |
||
|
7/20 |
Sell
VWESX at $8.38 |
12543.807
shares |
$104,854.31 |
|||
|
7/20 |
Buy
VEIEX at $21.42 |
4895.159
shares |
$104,854.31 |
4.85% |
||
|
8/24 |
Sell
VEIEX at $22.69 |
4895.159
shares |
$110,793.49 |
0.5%
pur./red. fees |
||
|
8/24 |
Buy
VCVLX at $8.06 |
13746.090
shares |
$110,793.49 |
10.79% |
||
|
11/2 |
Sell
VCVLX at $8.23 |
13746.090
shares |
$113,130.32 |
|||
|
11/2 |
Buy
VWEHX at $5.36 |
21106.403
shares |
$113,130.32 |
13.13% |
||
|
11/16 |
Sell
VWEHX at $5.38 |
21106.403
shares |
$112,133.04 |
|||
|
11/16 |
Buy
VEIEX at $26.16 |
4286.431
shares |
$112,133.04 |
12.13% |
||
|
12/28 |
Sell
VEIEX at $25.75 |
4339.484
shares |
$111,462.35 |
1 |
||
|
12/28 |
Buy
VIMSX at $16.60 |
6714.599
shares |
$111,462.35 |
11.46% |
||
|
12/31 |
Holding
VIMSX at $16.36 |
6714.599
shares |
$109,850.85 |
9.85% |
Fidelity VIP:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
FTNJC at 11.408060 |
8765.73230
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
1/12 |
|
Sell
FTNJC at 11.414400 |
8765.73230
shares |
$100,055.57 |
|
|
|
1/12 |
|
Buy
FAMMT at 19.129000 |
5230.57006
shares |
$100,055.57 |
|
0.06% |
|
3/9 |
|
Sell
FAMMT at 18.434728 |
5230.57006
shares |
$96,424.14 |
|
|
|
3/9 |
|
Buy
FTNJC at 11.431923 |
8434.63837
shares |
$96,424.14 |
|
-3.58% |
|
3/23 |
|
Sell
FTNJC at 11.434929 |
8434.63837
shares |
$96,449.49 |
|
|
|
3/23 |
|
Buy
FAMMT at 19.360721 |
4981.70966
shares |
$96,449.49 |
|
-3.55% |
|
4/6 |
|
Sell
FAMMT at 19.935000 |
4981.70966
shares |
$99,310.38 |
|
|
|
4/6 |
|
Buy
FAMEE 15.200000 |
6533.57777
shares |
$99,310.38 |
|
-0.69% |
|
5/11 |
|
Sell
FAMEE at 17.350000 |
6533.57777
shares |
$113,357.57 |
|
|
|
5/11 |
|
Buy
FAVVS at 8.980000 |
12623.33790
shares |
$113,357.57 |
|
13.36% |
|
6/29 |
|
Sell
FAVVS at 9.145867 |
12623.33790
shares |
$115,451.37 |
|
|
|
6/29 |
|
Buy
FAMEE at 19.117307 |
6039.10214
shares |
$115,451.37 |
|
15.45% |
|
8/10 |
|
Sell
FAMEE at 21.238748 |
6039.10214
shares |
$128,262.97 |
|
|
|
8/10 |
|
Buy
FAVVS at 10.738080 |
11944.68364
shares |
$128,262.97 |
|
28.26% |
|
11/2 |
|
Sell
FAVVS at 10.935419 |
11944.68364
shares |
$130,620.12 |
|
|
|
11/2 |
|
Buy
FAVHI at 32.819360 |
3979.97159
shares |
$130,620.12 |
|
30.62% |
|
11/16 |
|
Sell
FAVHI 33.046998 |
3979.97159
shares |
$131,526.11 |
|
|
|
11/16 |
|
Buy
FAMEE at 24.630861 |
5339.89101
shares |
$131,526.11 |
|
31.53% |
|
12/28 |
|
Sell
FAMEE at 24.400525 |
5339.89101
shares |
$130,296.14 |
|
|
|
12/28 |
|
Buy
FAVDC at 12.741155 |
10226.39973
shares |
$130,296.14 |
|
30.30% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
FTNJC at 11.408060 |
10226.39973
shares |
$129,027.83 |
|
29.03% |
VALIC:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
Fund 13 at 2.456500 |
40708.32485
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
3/2 |
|
Sell
Fund 13 at 2.308131 |
40708.32485
shares |
$93,960.15 |
|
|
|
3/2 |
|
Buy
Fund 6 at 2.143822 |
43828.33395
shares |
$93,960.15 |
|
-6.04% |
|
3/23 |
|
Sell
Fund 6 at 2.143413 |
43828.33395
shares |
$93,942.22 |
|
|
|
3/23 |
|
Buy
Fund 13 at 2.409475 |
38988.66797
shares |
$93,942.22 |
|
-6.06% |
|
3/30 |
|
Sell
Fund 13 at 2.380620 |
38988.66797
shares |
$92,817.20 |
|
|
|
3/30 |
|
Buy
Fund 86 at 0.648067 |
143221.6156
shares |
$92,817.20 |
|
-7.18% |
|
5/11 |
|
Sell
Fund 86 at 0.795058 |
143221.6156
shares |
$113,869.49 |
|
|
|
5/11 |
|
Buy
Fund 68 at 1.137184 |
100132.8644
shares |
$113,869.49 |
|
13.87% |
|
5/26 |
|
Sell
Fund 68 at 1.109350 |
100132.8644
shares |
$111,082.39 |
|
|
|
5/26 |
|
Buy
Fund 89 at 0.862035 |
128860.65310
shares |
$111,082.39 |
|
11.08% |
|
7/13 |
|
Sell
Fund 89 at 0.843970 |
128860.65310
shares |
$108,754.53 |
|
|
|
7/13 |
|
Buy
Fund 60 at 1.512397 |
71908.71537
shares |
$108,754.53 |
|
8.75% |
|
7/27 |
|
Sell
Fund 60 at 1.571209 |
71908.71537
shares |
$112,983.62 |
|
|
|
7/27 |
|
Buy
Fund 68 at 1.237055 |
91332.73845
shares |
$112,983.62 |
|
12.98% |
|
11/2 |
|
Sell
Fund 68 at 1.379088 |
91332.73845
shares |
$125,955.88 |
|
|
|
11/2 |
|
Buy
Fnd 60 at 1.702858 |
73967.34408
shares |
$125,955.88 |
|
25.96% |
|
11/16 |
|
Sell
Fund 60 at 1.718921 |
73967.34408
shares |
$127,144.02 |
|
|
|
11/16 |
|
Buy
Fund 69 at 1.576552 |
80646.89338
shares |
$127,144.02 |
|
27.14% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
Fund 69 at 1.630749 |
80646.89338
shares |
$131,514.84 |
|
31.51% |
1 Shares increased by
distribution/interest
Summary for 2002-2009:
|
Actual
Returns |
||||||||
|
Brokerage/Company |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
|
Brokerage |
51.48% |
9.86% |
10.05% |
16.73% |
-6.42% |
-16.80% |
60.70% |
17.10% |
|
Fidelity |
24.74% |
-9.89% |
9.85% |
12.70% |
12.09% |
19.90% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
T.
Rowe Price |
32.95% |
-2.28% |
-1.91% |
12.20% |
4.82% |
7.60% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Vanguard |
9.85% |
-14.07% |
-15.88% |
6.81% |
15.44% |
7.60% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Fund
Portfolio Avg. |
29.76% |
-4.10% |
0.53% |
12.11% |
6.48% |
4.58% |
60.70% |
17.10% |
|
Annuity |
||||||||
|
Fidelity
VIP |
29.03% |
-18.21% |
3.90% |
16.34% |
15.60% |
3.00% |
59.40% |
3.90% |
|
VALIC
403b |
31.51% |
-8.60% |
7.89% |
8.30% |
17.70% |
8.30% |
38.70% |
13.40% |
|
Annuity
Port. Avg. |
30.27% |
-13.41% |
5.90% |
12.32% |
16.65% |
5.65% |
49.05% |
8.65% |
|
All
Portfolio Avg. |
29.93% |
-7.20% |
2.32% |
12.18% |
9.87% |
4.93% |
52.93% |
11.47% |
|
Market
Indexes |
||||||||
|
DJIA |
18.82% |
-35.30% |
6.43% |
16.29% |
-0.61% |
3.10% |
25.30% |
-16.80% |
|
S&P
500 |
23.45% |
-39.50% |
3.53% |
13.62% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
26.40% |
-23.40% |
|
NASDAQ |
43.89% |
-41.00% |
9.81% |
9.52% |
1.37% |
8.60% |
50.00% |
-31.50% |
|
Russell
2000 |
25.22% |
-36.50% |
-2.75% |
17.00% |
3.32% |
17.00% |
45.40% |
-21.60% |
|
Midcap
400 |
35.00% |
-39.00% |
6.69% |
8.99% |
11.27% |
15.16% |
34.02% |
-15.45% |
|
Market
Index Avg. |
29.28% |
-38.26% |
4.74% |
13.08% |
3.67% |
10.57% |
36.22% |
-21.75% |
|
2004-2009 |
2002-2009 |
2004-2009 |
2002-2009 |
|||||
|
Brokerage/Company |
Accum. |
Accum. |
Avg. Yearly. |
Avg. Yearly. |
||||
|
Brokerage |
66.45% |
213.22% |
10.82% |
17.84% |
||||
|
Fidelity |
87.02% |
N/A |
11.57% |
N/A |
||||
|
T.
Rowe Price |
61.27% |
N/A |
8.90% |
N/A |
||||
|
Vanguard |
5.35% |
N/A |
1.63% |
N/A |
||||
|
Annuity |
||||||||
|
Fidelity
VIP |
51.89% |
151.56% |
8.28% |
14.12% |
||||
|
VALIC
403b |
79.03% |
181.58% |
10.85% |
14.65% |
||||
|
Portfolio
Avg. |
58.50% |
182.12% |
8.67% |
15.54% |
||||
|
|
||||||||
|
Market
Indexes |
||||||||
|
DJIA |
-2.50% |
1.64% |
1.46% |
2.15% |
||||
|
S&P
500 |
-1.36% |
-4.50% |
2.18% |
2.01% |
||||
|
NASDAQ |
12.40% |
15.49% |
5.37% |
6.34% |
||||
|
Russell
2000 |
9.37% |
24.67% |
3.88% |
5.89% |
||||
|
Midcap
400 |
22.70% |
39.04% |
6.35% |
7.09% |
||||
|
Market
Index Avg. |
8.12% |
15.27% |
3.85% |
4.69% |
Explanation:
The
Accum. Returns columns
represent the total accumulated return during the range of years given. For example, if you had $100,000 invested in
the brokerage-available portfolio starting in 2002, you would have gained
213.22% and it would be worth $313,220.
Alternatively, if at the start of 2002, you had $100,000 invested in a
fund that followed the performance of the Dow, it would be worth $101,640.
The Avg. Yearly
Returns column gives the average return for a portfolio or market index of the
range given. It represents the mean of
the percentage values given in the first table.
The returns in the
tables represent actual results since we went live with the system in
2002. In 2002-2003, we only tracked
funds in the brokerage-available portfolio, and thus have no “actual” results
for Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard for those years. Dr. Ben Buckner back-tested the system with
the universe of funds from each fund company, observing strong gains. In addition, FTI using Fidelity funds vastly
out-performed the market prior to 2002.
For details, see http://www.fundtradingindexes.com/results.htm.
Discussion:
The
first quarter of 2009 looked a lot like 2008; down. The S&P 500 reached a
high on January 6 of over 943 and, in just two months, proceeded to slide to
its low for the year of just under 667. FTI, with portfolios invested in
mainly bond, money market, and bear funds, was shielded from the worst of this
decline. However, even normally less volatile bond funds, which were held
in most FTI portfolios at the beginning of the year, took a modest hit early
on.
This continued
panic and collapse of the stock market prompted many “experts” to opine that
the Dow was possibly headed to 5000. Even the optimists, who noted that a
rally was due at some point, felt there was much more ground for the major
indexes to lose before a step back into the market was warranted.
Buy-and-hold Investors already fully invested in equity stocks were helpless,
while many investors who were out of the market were understandably too timid
to re-enter it. FTI doesn’t engage in dubious speculation or
emotions. When, at the beginning of the rally in March, some of the
Trading Index (TI) values of equity funds turned positive, it prompted our
portfolios to purchase these funds, with most of these portfolios catching most
of the steep and sustained rally.
As
the year progressed, market volatility continued to drop, and the market
continued a slight upward trend but with some sideways action. Our
brokerage-available portfolio performed well from start to finish, yielding a YTD return of 51.48% once again soundly beating all market
indexes. The Vanguard portfolio struggled the
most; getting hit the hardest by the sharp plunge in NAVs of bond funds early
on, and getting under-whelming performance from the Vanguard Capital Value fund
(VCVLX). The FTI All Portfolio average finished at a solid 29.76%.
The S&P 500 finished the year at 1115.10,
up 23.45% for the year and up 67.2% from the March low. What will 2010
bring? Some expect the rally to continue. Others expect a major
downward correction, as lingering problems with the credit markets and economic
indicators such as high unemployment could weigh down the rally. However,
as Dr. Ben Buckner once said, we “don’t have a crystal ball”, and FTI takes away
the “guesswork”.
Past newsletters are available at:
http://www.fundtradingindexes.com/historical.htm.
To subscribe to the Weekly Trading Indexes and/or buy the book, click on www.fundtradingindexes.com and follow the
instructions.
FTI Staff
Fund Trading Indexes