Trading
Indexes Newsletter 2009-1
January 26, 2009
FTI Staff
FTI System Trades and Returns for 2008
Actual Trades Using Guided Approach
The following are the lists of trades and results for 2008 for each of the
portfolios in the FTI Guided Approach. Included are trades for the
Brokerage-Available portfolio, the trades for the fund company portfolios
(Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard), and the trades for the annuities
(Fidelity VIP/VALIC). The trades can be verified from the FTI reports
and/or TI lists available to members.
Each portfolio starts with $100,000 on 12/31/07. We use Fidelity for the
brokerage account. Fidelity charges a short term trading fee of $75 each
time you sell or exchange shares of No Transaction Fee (NTF) funds held less
than 180 days (short-term trade). When a trade is signaled for a mutual
fund in a brokerage account, the sale is made on the Monday following the trade
signal and the proceeds (minus the trading fee) are used to buy the new fund on
Tuesday. For individual mutual fund accounts and annuities, the sale and
subsequent purchase are both made on Monday.
The year-to-date gains/losses are shown in percent at each transaction point to
mark the progress of each portfolio.
Brokerage-Available Portfolio:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
SDMGX at $29.27 |
3416.467
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
1/14 |
|
Sell
SDMGX at $28.61 |
3416.467
shares |
$97,670.13 |
|
|
|
1/15 |
|
Buy BEARX
at $6.84 |
14279.259
shares |
$97,670.13 |
|
-2.33% |
|
4/7 |
|
Sell
BEARX at $6.39 |
14279.259
shares |
$91,169.46 |
|
|
|
4/8 |
|
Buy HRVIX
at $23.95 |
3806.658
shares |
$91,169.46 |
|
-8.83% |
|
6/23 |
|
Sell
HRVIX at $24.95 |
3806.658
shares |
$94,901.12 |
|
|
|
6/24 |
|
Buy BRPIX
at $28.84 |
3290.608
shares |
$94,901.12 |
|
-5.10% |
|
8/11 |
|
Sell
BRPIX at $28.25 |
3290.608
shares |
$92,884.66 |
|
|
|
8/12 |
|
Buy JENSX
at $27.11 |
3426.214
shares |
$92,884.66 |
|
-7.12% |
|
9/8 |
|
Sell
JENSX at $26.98 |
3426.214
shares |
$92,364.26 |
|
|
|
9/9 |
|
Buy BRPIX
at $30.01 |
3077.783
shares |
$92,364.26 |
|
-7.64% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
BRPIX at $33.83 |
3247.330
shares |
$109,857.18 |
|
9.86% 1 |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
FDFFX at $28.19 |
3547.357
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
1/22 |
|
Sell
FDFFX at $23.87 |
3615.808
shares |
$86,309.34 |
|
shares
increased by dist. |
|
1/22 |
|
Buy SPRXX
at $1.00 |
86309.335
shares |
$86,309.34 |
|
-13.69% |
|
4/7 |
|
Sell
SPRXX at $1.00 |
86911.495
shares |
$86,911.49 |
|
shares
increased by int. |
|
4/7 |
|
Buy FDFFX
at $26.77 |
3246.600
shares |
$86,911.49 |
|
-13.09% |
|
7/7 |
|
Sell
FDFFX at $27.42 |
3246.600
shares |
$89,021.79 |
|
|
|
7/7 |
|
Buy SPRXX
at $1.00 |
89021.785
shares |
$89,021.79 |
|
-10.98% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
SPRXX at $1.00 |
90114.408
shares |
$90,114.41 |
|
-9.89% 1 |
T. Rowe Price Funds:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
PRULX at $11.95 |
8368.201
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
4/21 |
|
Sell
PRULX at $12.09 |
8471.557
shares |
$102,421.13 |
|
shares
increased by dist. |
|
4/21 |
|
Buy PRGSX
at $24.32 |
4211.395
shares |
$102,421.13 |
|
2.42% |
|
6/16 |
|
Sell
PRGSX at $23.96 |
4211.395
shares |
$98,886.93 |
|
2%
redemption fee |
|
6/16 |
|
Buy PRDSX
at $14.29 |
6920.009
shares |
$98,886.93 |
|
-1.11% |
|
7/7 |
|
Sell
PRDSX at $13.10 |
6920.009
shares |
$90,652.12 |
|
|
|
7/7 |
|
Buy TSCXX
at $1.00 |
90652.116
shares |
$90,652.12 |
|
-9.35% |
|
8/11 |
|
Sell
TSCXX at $1.00 |
90856.159
shares |
$90,856.16 |
|
shares
increased by int. |
|
8/11 |
|
Buy TRVLX
at $24.26 |
3745.101
shares |
$90,856.16 |
|
-9.14% |
|
9/8 |
|
From
TRVLX at $23.62 |
3745.101
shares |
$88,459.29 |
|
|
|
9/8 |
|
To PRULX
at $12.33 |
7174.314
shares |
$88,459.29 |
|
-11.54% |
|
10/20 |
|
From
PRULX at $11.89 |
7200.996
shares |
$85,619.84 |
|
shares
increased by dist. |
|
10/20 |
|
To TSCXX
at $1.00 |
85619.837
shares |
$85,619.84 |
|
-14.38% |
|
11/17 |
|
From
TSCXX at $1.00 |
85777.602
shares |
$85,777.60 |
|
shares
increased by int. |
|
11/17 |
|
To PRULX
at $12.11 |
7083.204
shares |
$85,777.60 |
|
-14.22% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
PRULX at $13.75 |
7106.601
shares |
$97,715.76 |
|
-2.28% 1 |
Vanguard:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
VEIEX at $24.27 |
3019.324
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
1/7 |
|
Sell
VEIEX at $32.27 |
3019.324
shares |
$97,433.57 |
|
|
|
1/7 |
|
Buy VUSTX
at $11.69 |
8334.780
shares |
$97,433.57 |
|
-2.57% |
|
4/21 |
|
Sell
VUSTX at $11.58 |
8452.149
shares |
$97,875.88 |
|
shares
increased by dist. |
|
4/21 |
|
Buy VTRIX
at $41.12 |
2380.250
shares |
$97,875.88 |
|
-2.12% |
|
6/23 |
|
Sell
VTRIX at $38.14 |
2380.250
shares |
$90,782.74 |
|
|
|
6/23 |
|
Buy VISGX
at $19.45 |
4667.493
shares |
$90,782.74 |
|
-9.22% |
|
6/30 |
|
Sell
VISGX at $18.72 |
4667.493
shares |
$87,375.47 |
|
|
|
6/30 |
|
Buy VMMXX
at $1.00 |
87375.469
shares |
$87,375.47 |
|
-12.62% |
|
8/11 |
|
Sell
VMMXX at $1.00 |
87597.425
shares |
$87,597.43 |
|
shares
increased by int. |
|
8/11 |
|
Buy VISVX
at $15.27 |
5736.570
shares |
$87,597.43 |
|
-12.40% |
|
9/29 |
|
Sell
VISVX at $13.63 |
5736.570
shares |
$78,189.45 |
|
|
|
9/29 |
|
Buy VMMXX
at $1.00 |
78189.450
shares |
$78,189.45 |
|
-21.81% |
|
10/6 |
|
Sell
VMMXX at $1.00 |
78224.029
shares |
$78,224.03 |
|
shares
increased by int. |
|
10/6 |
|
Buy VUSTX
at $11.97 |
6535.007
shares |
$78,224.03 |
|
-21.78% |
|
10/20 |
|
Sell
VUSTX at $11.32 |
6535.007
shares |
$73,976.27 |
|
|
|
10/20 |
|
Buy VMMXX
at $1.00 |
73976.275
shares |
$73,976.27 |
|
-26.02% |
|
11/17 |
|
Sell
VMMXX at $1.00 |
74114.818
shares |
$74,114.82 |
|
shares
increased by int. |
|
11/17 |
|
Buy VUSTX
at $11.59 |
6394.721
shares |
$74,114.82 |
|
-25.89% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
VUSTX at $13.38 |
6422.087
shares |
$85,927.52 |
|
-14.07% 1 |
Fidelity VIP:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
FAMEE at 33.864452 |
2952.94901
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
1/22 |
|
Sell
FAMEE at 28.550000 |
2952.94901
shares |
$84,306.69 |
|
|
|
1/22 |
|
Buy FAMMT
at 22.468000 |
3752.30079
shares |
$84,306.69 |
|
-15.69% |
|
4/21 |
|
Sell
FAMMT at 22.502318 |
3752.30079
shares |
$84,435.47 |
|
|
|
4/21 |
|
Buy FAVAG
at 26.943489 |
3133.79851
shares |
$84,435.47 |
|
-15.56% |
|
7/7 |
|
Sell
FAVAG at 25.805560 |
3133.79851
shares |
$80,869.43 |
|
|
|
7/7 |
|
Buy FTNJC
at 11.279080 |
7169.86008
shares |
$80,869.43 |
|
-19.13% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
FTNJC at 11.408060 |
7169.86008
shares |
$81,794.19 |
|
-18.21% |
VALIC:
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
Fund 78 at 1.121568 |
89160.88904
shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
|
1/7 |
|
Sell Fund
78 at 1.076302 |
89160.88904
shares |
$95,964.04 |
|
|
|
1/7 |
|
Buy Fund
13 at 2.525970 |
37990.9671
shares |
$95,964.04 |
|
-4.04% |
|
4/21 |
|
Sell Fund
13 at 2.607708 |
37990.9671
shares |
$99,069.35 |
|
|
|
4/21 |
|
Buy Fund
39 at 1.146892 |
86380.7132
shares |
$99,069.35 |
|
-0.93% |
|
6/23 |
|
Sell Fund
39 at 1.089974 |
86380.7132
shares |
$94,152.73 |
|
|
|
6/23 |
|
Buy Fund
6 at 2.136175 |
44075.3831
shares |
$94,152.73 |
|
-5.85% |
|
8/4 |
|
Sell Fund
6 at 2.138223 |
44075.3831
shares |
$94,243.00 |
|
|
|
8/4 |
|
Buy Fund
14 at 3.485893 |
27035.5395
shares |
$94,243.00 |
|
-5.76% |
|
9/29 |
|
Sell Fund
14 at 3.256111 |
27035.5395
shares |
$88,030.72 |
|
|
|
9/29 |
|
Buy Fund
6 at 2.141424 |
41108.4949
shares |
$88,030.72 |
|
-11.97% |
|
12/15 |
|
Sell Fund
6 at 2.143848 |
41108.4949
shares |
$88,130.36 |
|
|
|
12/15 |
|
Buy Fund
13 at 2.368688 |
37206.4048
shares |
$88,130.36 |
|
-11.87% |
|
12/31 |
|
Holding
Fund 13 at 2.456500 |
37206.4048
shares |
$91,397.53 |
|
-8.60% |
1 Shares increased by
distribution/interest
Summary for 2002-2008:
|
Actual
Returns |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brokerage/Company |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
|
Brokerage |
9.86% |
10.05% |
16.73% |
-6.42% |
-16.80% |
60.70% |
17.10% |
|
Fidelity |
-9.89% |
9.85% |
12.70% |
12.09% |
19.90% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
T. Rowe
Price |
-2.28% |
-1.91% |
12.20% |
4.82% |
7.60% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Vanguard |
-14.07% |
-15.88% |
6.81% |
15.44% |
7.60% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Fund
Portfolio Avg. |
-4.10% |
0.53% |
12.11% |
6.48% |
4.58% |
60.70% |
17.10% |
|
Annuity |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fidelity
VIP |
-18.21% |
3.90% |
16.34% |
15.60% |
3.00% |
59.40% |
3.90% |
|
VALIC
403b |
-8.60% |
7.89% |
8.30% |
17.70% |
8.30% |
38.70% |
13.40% |
|
Annuity
Portfolio Avg. |
-13.41% |
5.90% |
12.32% |
16.65% |
5.65% |
49.05% |
8.65% |
|
All
Portfolio Avg. |
-7.20% |
2.32% |
12.18% |
9.87% |
4.93% |
52.93% |
11.47% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market
Indexes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJIA |
-35.30% |
6.43% |
16.29% |
-0.61% |
3.10% |
25.30% |
-16.80% |
|
S&P
500 |
-39.50% |
3.53% |
13.62% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
26.40% |
-23.40% |
|
NASDAQ |
-41.00% |
9.81% |
9.52% |
1.37% |
8.60% |
50.00% |
-31.50% |
|
Russell
2000 |
-36.50% |
-2.75% |
17.00% |
3.32% |
17.00% |
45.40% |
-21.60% |
|
Midcap
400 |
-39.00% |
6.69% |
8.99% |
11.27% |
15.16% |
34.02% |
-15.45% |
|
Market
Index Average |
-38.26% |
4.74% |
13.08% |
3.67% |
10.57% |
36.22% |
-21.75% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004-2008 |
|
2002-2008 |
|
2004-2008 |
|
2002-2008 |
|
Brokerage/Company |
Accum. |
|
Accum. |
|
Avg. Yearly. |
|
Avg. Yearly. |
|
Brokerage |
9.88% |
|
106.77% |
|
2.68% |
|
13.03% |
|
Fidelity |
49.93% |
|
N/A |
|
8.93% |
|
N/A |
|
T. Rowe
Price |
21.30% |
|
N/A |
|
4.09% |
|
N/A |
|
Vanguard |
-4.10% |
|
N/A |
|
-0.02% |
|
N/A |
|
Annuity |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fidelity
VIP |
17.72% |
|
94.96% |
|
4.13% |
|
11.99% |
|
VALIC
403b |
36.13% |
|
114.12% |
|
6.72% |
|
12.24% |
|
Portfolio
Avg. |
22.81% |
|
102.38% |
|
4.42% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market
Indexes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJIA |
-17.94% |
|
-14.46% |
|
-2.02% |
|
-0.23% |
|
S&P
500 |
-20.10% |
|
-22.64% |
|
-2.07% |
|
-1.05% |
|
NASDAQ |
-21.89% |
|
-19.74% |
|
-2.34% |
|
0.97% |
|
Russell
2000 |
-12.66% |
|
-0.44% |
|
-0.39% |
|
3.12% |
|
Midcap
400 |
-9.11% |
|
2.99% |
|
0.62% |
|
3.10% |
|
Market
Index Average |
-16.17% |
|
-10.64% |
|
-1.24% |
|
1.18% |
Explanation:
The Accum. Returns columns represent
the total accumulated return during the range of years given. For example, if you had $100,000 invested in
the brokerage-available portfolio starting in 2002, you would have gained
106.77% and it would be worth $206,770.
Alternatively, if at the start of 2002, you had $100,000 invested in a
fund that followed the performance of the Dow, it would be worth $89,360.
The Avg. Yearly Returns column gives
the average return for a portfolio or market index of the range given. It represents the mean of the percentage
values given in the first table.
The returns in the tables represent
actual results since we went live with the system in 2002. In 2002-2003, we only tracked funds in the
brokerage-available portfolio, and thus have no “actual” results for Fidelity,
T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard for those years.
Dr. Ben Buckner back-tested the system with the universe of funds from
each fund company and observed strong gains.
In addition, FTI using Fidelity funds vastly out-performed the market
prior to 2002. For details, see http://www.fundtradingindexes.com/results.htm.
Discussion:
In 2008, terrible losses not seen in many decades, along with incredibly
volatility hit the stock market due largely to the credit crisis. The average of the market indexes we track
fell a whopping 38.2%. In years of
strong bulls or strong bears, FTI outperforms the market by leaps and bounds,
and this year was no exception. In last
year’s newsletter, we wrote “During strong bear markets, such as 2002, we spend
much of the time in money market, bond and in some cases, contrarian funds,
shielding our portfolios from the losses and allowing for some gains.“ 2008 was a good example of this, although
gains are in part dependent on the availability and willingness to purchase
contrarian funds. The average return of
the 4 mutual fund portfolios we track was –4.1%. Including the 2 annuities, it was –7.2% or more than 30% better
than the average of the market indexes in both cases. The brokerage-available portfolio, which includes the option to
purchase contrarian funds, gained 9.86%.
Our portfolios didn’t have a smooth ride the entire year. The month of January brought strong losses
to our Fidelity and Fidelity VIP portfolios.
During mid-year, some false rallies pushed us back into equities briefly
in several portfolios. September
brought the final bear signal. On
September 9th, we moved into a bear fund in our brokerage-available
portfolio, remaining there through the end of the year. In other portfolios, we alternated between
money market and treasury funds.
In the long-run, the 2004-2008
average accumulated returns for our 6 portfolios is 22.81% as compared with an
average market index loss of 16.17%.
Going back to 2002, our brokerage-available portfolio has gained 106.77%
as compared with an average market index loss of 10.64%.
Past newsletters are available at:
http://www.fundtradingindexes.com/historical.htm.
To subscribe to the Weekly Trading Indexes and/or buy the book, click on www.fundtradingindexes.com and follow the instructions.
Also, for
those of you who are not subscribers and only receive the weekly notice of
release, we are adding a feature that will give you some indication of how FTI
is performing relative to the market indexes listed above. Each week the notice
will contain the paragraphs below.
________________
The Fund
Trading Indexes for mm/dd/yy have been released, along with the Weekly
Report. Paid members can access these at www.fundtradingindexes.com/historical.htm.
There, the trading indexes are all in one file, the individual fund company TIs
and annuity TIs following the brokerage-available funds. Trading Indexes can
also be viewed as separate lists by going to the home page at www.fundtradingindexes.com
and clicking on the Weekly Trading Indexes button near the top of the display.
This is more convenient if you want to print
individual lists. Trades in the various methods we track, if any, are cited in
the Weekly Report which is sent to paid subscribers as a guide to help learn
how to use the system.
FTI tracks
six portfolios; the Brokerage Available, the three fund company portfolios,
Fidelity, T. Rowe Price and Vanguard, and two annuities, Fidelity VIP and
VALIC.
For the
week that ended on Friday, the average of the four FTI mutual fund portfolios
changed x%. The best portfolio registered x%. The annuity portfolios averaged
x% for the week and the FTI all portfolios average for this week was x%.
For the
week the average change for the five market indexes we track was x%.
Year-to-date,
our 6-fund average return is ahead of x major market indexes.
Our paid
subscribers have access to the Trading Indexes (TIs) for funds in all of these
portfolios. Please see the web page for details.
________________
FTI Staff
Fund Trading Indexes