Trading
Indexes Newsletter 2005-1
January 3, 2005
FTI Staff
FTI System Trades and Returns for 2004
Actual Trades Using Guided Approach
The following are the lists of trades and results for 2004 for each of the
strategies in the FTI Guided Approach. Included are the
Aggressive/Moderate/Conservative strategies using the Brokerage-Available
mutual funds, the trades for the individual fund company funds tracked
(Fidelity/T. Rowe Price/Vanguard), and the trades for the annuities (Fidelity
VIP/VALIC). For the brokerage strategies and the annuities, the returns
posted are actual returns, as opposed to back-tested returns. The trades
can be verified from the FTI reports and/or TI lists available to
members. We began posting TI lists for each of the three fund companies
starting 6/25/04. Therefore, the trades prior to 6/25/04 are simulated.
Each strategy is assumed to have started with $100,000 on 12/31/03. We
use Fidelity for the brokerage accounts. Fidelity charges a short term
trading fee of $75 each time you sell or exchange shares of No Transaction Fee
(NTF) funds held less than 180 days (short-term trade). When a trade is
signaled for a mutual fund in a brokerage account, we assume that the sale is
made on the Monday following the trade signal and the proceeds (minus the
trading fee) used to buy the new fund on Tuesday. For individual mutual
fund accounts and annuities, the sale and subsequent purchase are both made on
Monday.
The year-to-date gains/losses are shown in percent at each transaction point to
mark the progress of each strategy.
Brokerage-Available Funds -- Aggressive Growth:
|
12/31 |
Holding USCOX at $6.56 |
15243.902 shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
3/8 |
Sell USCOX at $6.96 |
15243.902 shares |
$104,961.59 |
1% redemption fee |
|
3/9 |
Buy AEMGX at $17.75 |
5913.329 shares |
$104,961.59 |
4.96% |
|
5/3 |
Sell AEMGX at $15.86 |
5913.329 shares |
$91,834.69 |
2% redemption fee |
|
5/4 |
Buy BSCFX at $20.70 |
4436.458 shares |
$91,834.69 |
-8.17% |
|
5/17 |
Sell BSCFX at $19.19 |
4436.458 shares |
$85,060.63 |
|
|
5/18 |
Buy URPIX at $23.71 |
3587.543 shares |
$85,060.63 |
-14.94% |
|
6/1 |
Sell URPIX at $22.43 |
3587.543 shares |
$80,393.58 |
|
|
6/2 |
Buy TGCNX at $17.77 |
4524.118 shares |
$80,393.58 |
-19.61% |
|
7/12 |
Sell TGCNX at $17.16 |
4524.118 shares |
$77,558.87 |
|
|
7/13 |
Buy DODFX at $25.32 |
3011.995 shares |
$77,558.87 |
-22.44% |
|
8/16 |
Sell DODFX at $25.13 |
3011.995 shares |
$75,616.43 |
|
|
8/17 |
Buy PEMDX at $10.45 |
7236.022 shares |
$75,616.43 |
-24.38% |
|
11/8 |
Sell PEMDX at $10.94 |
7293.683 shares |
$79,717.89 |
shares increased by dividends |
|
11/9 |
Buy GTDCX at $12.85 |
6203.727 shares |
$83,998.46 |
-20.28% |
|
12/13 |
Sell GTDCX at $13.22 |
6203.727 shares |
$81,938.27 |
|
|
12/14 |
Buy BARAX at $51.70 |
1584.880 shares |
$81,938.27 |
-18.06% |
|
12/31 |
Holding BARAX at $52.52 |
1584.880 shares |
$83,162.87 |
-16.84% |
Brokerage-Available Funds -- Moderate Growth:
Fund 1 of 2:
|
12/31 |
Holding USCOX at $6.56 |
7621.951 shares |
$50,000.00 |
|
|
3/15 |
Sell USCOX at $6.71 |
7621.951 shares |
$50,556.86 |
1% redemption fee |
|
3/16 |
Buy RSPFX at $29.20 |
1731.399 shares |
$50,556.86 |
1.11% |
|
5/17 |
Sell RSPFX at $28.27 |
1731.399 shares |
$48,871.66 |
|
|
5/18 |
Buy Money Market at $1.00 |
48871.658 shares |
$48,871.66 |
-2.26% |
|
6/1 |
Sell Money Market at $1.00 |
48885.717 shares |
$48,885.72 |
shares increased by dividends |
|
6/1 |
Buy ARTSX at $15.30 |
3195.145 shares |
$48,885.72 |
-2.23% |
|
7/12 |
Sell ARTSX at $15.05 |
3195.145 shares |
$48,011.93 |
|
|
7/13 |
Buy DODFX at $25.75 |
1864.541 shares |
$48,011.93 |
-3.98% |
|
12/31 |
Holding DODFX at $30.64 |
1864.541 shares |
$57,054.54 |
14.11% |
Fund 2 of 2:
|
12/31 |
Holding VALUX at $24.56 |
2035.831 shares |
$50,000.00 |
|
|
1/12 |
Sell VALUX at $25.65 |
2035.831 shares |
$51,099.67 |
2% redemption fee |
|
1/13 |
Buy PTEMX at $12.73 |
4014.114 shares |
$51,099.67 |
2.20% |
|
4/19 |
Sell PTEMX at $13.01 |
4014.114 shares |
$51,626.39 |
1% redemption fee |
|
4/20 |
Buy FPSCX at $15.27 |
3380.903 shares |
$51,626.39 |
3.25% |
|
5/17 |
Sell FPSCX at $12.66 |
3380.903 shares |
$42,299.21 |
1% redemption fee |
|
5/18 |
Buy URPIX at $23.71 |
1784.024 shares |
$42,299.21 |
-15.40% |
|
6/1 |
Sell URPIX at $22.43 |
1784.024 shares |
$39,940.66 |
|
|
6/2 |
Buy TGCNX at $17.77 |
2247.645 shares |
$39,940.66 |
-20.12% |
|
7/12 |
Sell TGCNX at $17.16 |
2247.645 shares |
$38,494.60 |
|
|
7/13 |
Buy AVALX at $17.72 |
2172.381 shares |
$38,494.60 |
-23.01% |
|
8/9 |
Sell AVALX at $17.12 |
2172.381 shares |
$37,116.17 |
|
|
8/10 |
Buy PEMDX at 10.33 |
3593.046 shares |
$37,116.17 |
-25.77% |
|
11/8 |
Sell PEMDX at $10.94 |
3624.440 shares |
$39,576.37 |
shares increased by dividends |
|
11/9 |
Buy GTDCX at $12.85 |
3079.873 shares |
$39,576.37 |
-20.85% |
|
12/13 |
Sell GTDCX at $13.22 |
3079.873 shares |
$40,640.93 |
|
|
12/14 |
Buy BARAX at $51.70 |
786.091 shares |
$40,640.93 |
-18.72% |
|
12/31 |
Holding BARAX at $52.52 |
786.091 shares |
$41,210.52 |
-17.58% |
Moderate
Growth Return = $57,054 + $41,210 = $98,265 = -1.7% YTD
Brokerage-Available Funds -- Conservative Growth:
Fund 1 of 3:
|
12/31 |
Holding HRTVX at $51.14 |
651.805 shares |
$33,333.33 |
|
|
3/8 |
Sell HRTVX at $52.29 |
651.805 shares |
$34,007.91 |
|
|
3/9 |
Buy AEMGX at $16.47 |
2064.839 shares |
$34,007.91 |
2.02% |
|
5/3 |
Sell AEMGX at $15.86 |
2064.839 shares |
$32,673.35 |
|
|
5/4 |
Buy BSCFX at $20.70 |
1578.423 shares |
$32,673.35 |
-1.98% |
|
5/17 |
Sell BSCFX at $19.19 |
1578.423 shares |
$30,214.94 |
|
|
5/18 |
Buy Money Market at $1.00 |
30214.936 shares |
$30,214.94 |
-9.36% |
|
6/1 |
Sell Money Market at $1.00 |
30223.007 shares |
$30,223.01 |
|
|
6/1 |
Buy ARTSX at $15.30 |
1975.360 shares |
$30,223.01 |
-9.33% |
|
7/12 |
Sell ARTSX at $15.05 |
1975.360 shares |
$29,654.17 |
|
|
7/13 |
Buy DODFX at $25.75 |
1151.618 shares |
$29,654.17 |
-11.04% |
|
12/31 |
Holding DODFX at $30.64 |
1151.618 shares |
$35,210.58 |
5.63% |
Fund 2 of 3:
|
12/31 |
Holding KSCOX at $16.55 |
2014.098 shares |
$33,333.33 |
|
|
1/5 |
Sell KSCOX at $16.93 |
2014.098 shares |
$34,023.69 |
|
|
1/6 |
Buy USCOX at $6.86 |
4959.721 shares |
$34,023.69 |
2.07% |
|
3/15 |
Sell USCOX at $6.71 |
4959.721 shares |
$32,871.93 |
1% redemption fee |
|
3/16 |
Buy RSPFX at $29.20 |
1125.751 shares |
$32,871.93 |
-1.38% |
|
5/17 |
Sell RSPFX at $28.27 |
1125.751 shares |
$31,749.98 |
|
|
5/18 |
Buy FUSFX at $10.05 |
3159.202 shares |
$31,749.98 |
-4.75% |
|
6/21 |
Sell FUSFX at $10.04 |
3162.310 shares |
$31,595.22 |
dividend inc.;0.25% red. fee |
|
6/22 |
Buy UMLCX at $15.06 |
2097.956 shares |
$31,595.22 |
-5.21% |
|
7/19 |
Sell UMLCX at $14.64 |
2097.956 shares |
$30,639.08 |
|
|
7/20 |
Buy PEMDX at $10.19 |
3006.779 shares |
$30,639.08 |
-8.08% |
|
11/8 |
Sell PEMDX at $10.94 |
3048.653 shares |
$33,277.27 |
shares increased by dividends |
|
11/9 |
Buy RSCOX at $20.23 |
1644.946 shares |
$33,277.27 |
-0.17% |
|
12/31 |
Holding RSCOX at $21.99 |
1639.559 shares |
$36,097.37 |
8.29% |
Fund 3 of 3:
|
12/31 |
Holding UMBIX at $35.86 |
929.541 shares |
$33,333.33 |
|
|
2/10 |
Sell UMBIX at $36.96 |
929.541 shares |
$34,280.82 |
|
|
2/11 |
Buy IEGCX at $12.93 |
2651.263 shares |
$34,280.82 |
2.84% |
|
4/19 |
Sell IEGCX at $13.19 |
2651.263 shares |
$34,545.45 |
1% redemption fee |
|
4/20 |
Buy FPSCX at $15.27 |
2262.309 shares |
$34,545.45 |
3.64% |
|
5/17 |
Sell FPSCX at $12.66 |
2262.309 shares |
$28,279.42 |
1% redemption fee |
|
5/18 |
Buy BRPIX at $34.47 |
820.407 shares |
$28,279.42 |
-15.16% |
|
6/1 |
Sell BRPIX at $33.52 |
820.407 shares |
$27,425.03 |
|
|
6/2 |
Buy TGCNX at $17.77 |
1543.333 shares |
$27,425.03 |
-17.72% |
|
7/12 |
Sell TGCNX at $17.16 |
1543.333 shares |
$26,408.60 |
|
|
7/13 |
Buy AVALX at $17.72 |
1490.327 shares |
$26,408.60 |
-20.77% |
|
8/9 |
Sell AVALX at $17.12 |
1490.327 shares |
$25,439.40 |
|
|
8/10 |
Buy PHYDX at $9.54 |
2666.604 shares |
$25,439.40 |
-23.68% |
|
9/20 |
Sell PHYDX at $9.73 |
2694.563 shares |
$26,143.09 |
shares increased by dividends |
|
9/21 |
Buy DEMCX at $12.79 |
2044.026 shares |
$26,143.09 |
-21.57% |
|
12/31 |
Holding DEMCX at $14.63 |
2044.026 shares |
$29,829.10 |
-10.51% |
Conservative
Growth Returns = $35,210 + $36,097 + $29,829 = $101,136 = +1.1% YTD
|
12/31 |
Holding FECAX at $18.70 |
5347.594 shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
3/22 |
Sell FECAX at $18.93 |
5347.594 shares |
$101,229.95 |
|
|
3/22 |
Buy FPBFX at $18.10 |
5592.815 shares |
$101,229.95 |
1.23% |
|
5/3 |
Sell FPBFX at $18.30 |
5592.815 shares |
$100,813.28 |
1% redemption fee |
|
5/3 |
Buy FDRXX at $1.00 |
100813.282 shares |
$100,813.28 |
0.81% |
|
6/1 |
Sell FDRXX at $1.00 |
100873.356 shares |
$100,873.36 |
shares increased by dividends |
|
6/1 |
Buy FCNTX at $51.50 |
1958.706 shares |
$100,873.36 |
0.87% |
|
7/19 |
Sell FCNTX at $50.63 |
1958.706 shares |
$99,169.28 |
|
|
7/19 |
Buy FNMIX $13.36 |
7422.850 shares |
$99,169.28 |
-0.83% |
|
11/1 |
Sell FNMIX at $14.15 |
7548.177 shares |
$106,806.70 |
|
|
11/1 |
Buy FIEUX at $30.43 |
3509.915 shares |
$106,806.70 |
6.81% |
|
12/31 |
Holding FIEUX at $34.15 |
3509.915 shares |
$119,863.58 |
19.86% |
T. Rowe Price Funds:
|
12/31 |
Holding TRMCX at $20.34 |
4916.421 shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
5/10 |
Sell TRMCX at $20.38 |
4916.421 shares |
$100,196.66 |
|
|
5/10 |
Buy TSCXX at $1.00 |
100196.657 shares |
$100,196.66 |
0.20% |
|
6/1 |
Sell TSCXX at $1.00 |
100241.951 shares |
$100,241.95 |
shares increased by dividend |
|
6/1 |
Buy TRMCX at $21.28 |
4710.618 shares |
$100,241.95 |
0.24% |
|
8/9 |
Sell TRMCX at $20.51 |
4710.618 shares |
$96,614.78 |
|
|
8/9 |
Buy TSCXX at $1.00 |
96614.775 shares |
$96,614.78 |
-3.39% |
|
8/23 |
Sell TSCXX at $1.00 |
96631.818 shares |
$96,631.82 |
shares increased by dividend |
|
8/23 |
Buy PRFDX at $24.42 |
3957.077 shares |
$96,631.82 |
-3.37% |
|
10/25 |
Sell PRFDX at $24.49 |
3971.380 shares |
$97,259.09 |
shares increased by dividend |
|
10/25 |
Buy PRESX at $17.98 |
5409.293 shares |
$97,259.09 |
-2.74% |
|
12/31 |
Holding PRESX at $19.90 |
5409.293 shares |
$107,644.93 |
7.64% |
Vanguard:
|
12/31 |
Holding VEIEX at $11.85 |
8438.819 shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
3/29 |
Sell VEIEX at $12.54 |
8438.819 shares |
$105,822.78 |
|
|
3/29 |
Buy VPACX at $9.04 |
11706.060 shares |
$105,822.78 |
5.82% |
|
5/3 |
Sell VPACX at $8.42 |
11706.060 shares |
$96,593.73 |
1% redemption fee |
|
5/3 |
Buy Money Market at $1.00 |
96593.727 shares |
$96,593.73 |
-3.41% |
|
6/1 |
Sell Money Market at $1.00 |
96651.286 shares |
$96,651.29 |
|
|
6/1 |
Buy VIMSX at $13.54 |
7138.204 shares |
$96,651.29 |
-3.35% |
|
7/19 |
Sell VIMSX at $13.36 |
7138.204 shares |
$95,366.41 |
|
|
7/19 |
Buy VASVX at $16.24 |
5872.316 shares |
$95,366.41 |
-4.63% |
|
8/9 |
Sell VASVX at $15.47 |
5872.316 shares |
$89,936.28 |
|
|
8/9 |
Buy VWEHX at $6.27 |
14343.904 shares |
$89,936.28 |
-10.06% |
|
9/20 |
Sell VWEHX at $6.36 |
14500.317 shares |
$92,222.02 |
shares increased by dividend |
|
9/20 |
Buy VEIEX at $12.58 |
7330.844 shares |
$92,222.02 |
-7.78% |
|
12/31 |
Holding VEIEX at $14.68 |
7330.844 shares |
$107,616.79 |
7.62% |
Fidelity VIP:
|
12/31 |
Holding FAMEE at 11.017142 |
9076.76419 shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
5/3 |
Sell FAMEE at 10.841307 |
9076.76419 shares |
$98,403.99 |
|
|
5/3 |
Buy FAMGE at 13.135607 |
7491.39245 shares |
$98,403.99 |
-1.60% |
|
5/10 |
Sell FAMGE at 12.690406 |
7491.39245 shares |
$95,068.81 |
|
|
5/10 |
Buy FAVMM at 19.220575 |
4946.20019 shares |
$95,068.81 |
-4.93% |
|
6/1 |
Sell FAVMM at 19.222142 |
4946.20019 shares |
$95,076.56 |
|
|
6/1 |
Buy FAVCF at 31.304401 |
3037.16281 shares |
$95,076.56 |
-3.29% |
|
7/19 |
Sell FAVCF at 30.764825 |
3037.16281 shares |
$93,437.78 |
|
|
7/19 |
Buy FAVMC at 13.858975 |
6742.04133 shares |
$93,437.78 |
-6.56% |
|
8/9 |
Sell FAVMC at 13.023573 |
6742.04133 shares |
$87,805.47 |
|
|
8/9 |
Buy FAMED at 15.810104 |
5553.75648 shares |
$87,805.47 |
-12.19% |
|
10/4 |
Sell FAMED at 16.454000 |
5553.75648 shares |
$91,392.11 |
|
|
10/4 |
Buy FAMEE at 11.870500 |
7699.09558 shares |
$91,392.11 |
-8.61% |
|
12/31 |
Holding FAMEE at 13.38209 |
7699.09558 shares |
$103,030.01 |
3.03% |
VALIC:
|
12/31 |
Holding Fund 14 at 2.770089 |
36099.9231 shares |
$100,000.00 |
|
|
5/3 |
Sell Fund 14 at 2.808592 |
36099.9231 shares |
$101,389.96 |
|
|
5/3 |
Buy Fund 60 at 1.338985 |
75721.5020 shares |
$101,389.96 |
1.39% |
|
5/10 |
Sell Fund 60 at 1.313045 |
75721.5020 shares |
$99,425.74 |
|
|
5/10 |
Buy Fund 6 at 1.940472 |
51237.9151 shares |
$99,425.74 |
-0.57% |
|
6/1 |
Sell Fund 6 at 1.939920 |
51237.9151 shares |
$99,397.46 |
|
|
6/1 |
Buy Fund 67 at 0.529212 |
187821.6221 shares |
$99,397.46 |
-0.60% |
|
7/12 |
Sell Fund 67 at 0.512357 |
187821.6221 shares |
$96,231.72 |
|
|
7/12 |
Buy Fund 60 at 1.375235 |
69974.7482 shares |
$96,231.72 |
-3.77% |
|
11/8 |
Sell Fund 60 at 1.459516 |
69974.7482 shares |
$102,129.26 |
|
|
11/8 |
Buy Fund 67 at 0.544662 |
187509.4363 shares |
$102,129.26 |
2.13% |
|
12/31 |
Holding Fund 67 at 0.577799 |
187509.4363 shares |
$108,342.76 |
8.34% |
Summary for 2002-2004:
|
Brokerage Returns |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2002-2004 annualized |
|
Aggressive approach |
-16.80% |
60.70% |
17.10% |
20.30% |
|
Moderate approach |
-1.70% |
41.60% |
2.00% |
14.00% |
|
Conservative approach |
1.10% |
47.40% |
7.30% |
18.60% |
|
Fund Company Returns |
|
|
|
|
|
Fidelity |
19.90% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
T. Rowe Price |
7.60% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Vanguard |
7.60% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
3-Fund Company Avg. |
11.70% |
|
|
|
|
Annuity Returns |
|
|
|
|
|
Fidelity VIP |
3.00% |
59.40% |
3.90% |
22.10% |
|
VALIC 403b |
8.30% |
38.70% |
13.40% |
20.10% |
|
Average of 8 FTI Portfolios |
3.63% |
|
|
|
|
Market Indexes |
|
|
|
|
|
DJIA |
3.10% |
25.30% |
-16.80% |
3.90% |
|
S&P 500 |
9.00% |
26.40% |
-23.40% |
4.00% |
|
NASDAQ |
8.60% |
50.00% |
-31.50% |
9.00% |
|
Russell 2000 |
17.00% |
45.40% |
-21.60% |
13.60% |
Discussion:
The
brokerage strategies fell behind the market indexes early in 2004 when we were
required to pay almost 9% in redemption fees. The individual mutual fund
company portfolios and the annuity portfolios kept pace with the market.
The first half of the year was particularly difficult as the market turned
sideways. Since the FTI System is a trend monitoring system, it can lose
some ground in sideways markets.
The reasons for the losses suffered in the Brokerage
Available portfolio are complex. We are studying these trades and will discuss
our findings in a newsletter as soon as we complete our review.
We will be making some changes in the way we track our fund trades. These changes are to refocus on the primary strengths of FTI and reduce our emphasis on one portfolio over another. Very shortly we will release a newsletter explaining the details.
Newsletters 2003-14 and 2003-15, on "Choices and the
Time Value of Money" are good reading to see what a few percentage points
difference in annual returns on investments can make in the long run.
Past newsletters are available at: http://www.fundtradingindexes.com/historical.htm.
To subscribe to the Weekly Trading Indexes and/or buy the book, click on www.fundtradingindexes.com and follow the instructions.
FTI Staff
Fund Trading Indexes